Leadership By Numbers :: Looking at Gartner's Quadrants for Mobility as Tea Leaves

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Magic Quadrants are fun to examine for trends, and Gartner has just released their most recent analysis of Mobile Device Management. So, what's different this year, from last's ?

Mobileiron has moved up to lead the pack in the most competitive quadrant--that's impressive. A lot of their advancement is likely due to their continued internationalization. Fiberlink jumped from niche into visionary leader, and they are doing very well in the US Federal space. Good Technology is dropping, which is really interesting, as they were the lead and are now just barely are keeping themselves in the leaders space. Motorola is gone. Certainly Googleorla has kept a very low profile over most of the last nine months. But, with Google's purchase of Motorola finally approved by EU and China, next year will be different. SAP and Symantec both jumped in as challengers and IBM is making its presence known as visionary.

My take is that the markets will continue to consolidate as they mature; MobileIron, AirWatch, and Fiberlink will continue to have the biggest footprint. Google/Motorola has been invisible, but is going to splash into this space because they have no choice. Only Microsoft and Google can provide a pure single-vendor solution for device, protocol and back-end.

IBM is in play because they have distributed data centers and have made some purchases, but I'm hesitant to see dramatic inroads. The back end to MDM messaging (versus applications) is (1) cloud with Microsoft and Google, (2) on-premise with Microsoft, IBM in decline, and Groupwise on the wane.

I recommend also reviewing Mobile Megatrends latest report, because they pull out some other interesting statistics. HTML5 is not going to be adopted as a unifying presentation layer, but will be employed in a partisan, discretionary manner. Cross-platform tool sets are probably further fragmented than anything seen in the MDM industry, and will need to have some integration points with MDM solutions that provide mobile app provisioning. Which means, that web-apps are going to be hugely popular versus native apps (and the carriers will love this momentum).

Tablets have been sort of seated at the children's table, while the most substantive architecture has been designed around smartphones. That's changing, as the user experience of video/text/chat and email works well in different tablet form factors. It also means that Android and iOS will continue to absorb new market space at the cost of any other OS.

Finally, there's been very little activity from telcos, who are seeing their lunch being eaten by smaller, more nimble competitors. I expect to read about some significant purchases by the big carriers.

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