Leadership By Numbers

Category IBM/Lotus

Last year, an IT analyst firm posted their predictions for 2005 in which they foresaw (a) the demise of IBM/Lotus against the rise of Exchange and, oddly, (b) the collapse of blogging. I, of course, use Domino for blogging, so my response is not going to be much of a surprise. We are now in the 4th quarter of 2005, so just how well have these projections survived?

In relation to blogs, lets look at someone with a bit more personality in the world of web luminaries--what does Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the web, think of blogging?

For years I had been trying to address the fact that the web for most people wasn't a creative space; there were other editors, but editing web pages became difficult and complicated for people. What happened with blogs and with wikis, these editable web spaces, was that they became much more simple.

When you write a blog, you don't write complicated hypertext, you just write text, so I'm very, very happy to see that now it's gone in the direction of becoming more of a creative medium.

OK, so maybe not everyone agrees that blogging software will crowd the recycle shelves next to CB Radios and inkless thermal paper printers. What about Microsoft Exchange? Isn't that messaging platform absorbing the competition, and leaving no survivors? Especially with Domino?

It looks like IBM/Lotus is having a banner year, with IDC reporting a 17% increase in sales. Gartner is recommending a Domino 7 upgrade. And, Exchange? Well, Dell is offering a new upgrade program to shake the installed base into a current release. Dell sees a lucrative opportunity, because so many Exchange accounts are still in release 5.5.

"People haven't moved because it's hard and it costs money," said Leslie Sobon, director of global alliances at Dell, in Round Rock, Texas. Some 41 million Exchange 5.5 users—35 percent of all Exchange seats—were still on the aging version at the end of last year, according to IDC estimates.

Exchange 5.5 was released in 1997. I just think this is too weird. IBM/Lotus Domino was in release 4.6 in 1997. Can you imagine if 35% of all Domino shops were running 4.5 and claiming superiority? I don't get it. I'm running my server on V7 and I already have customers who are interested in the performance enhancements of V7. I can't imagine keeping a 1997 mail platform alive for nearly seven years.

So, I'm just going to put it out there for all the Domino bloggers: Sara hates us. To illustrate this point, Allison Pang and I have opened up a CafePress shop to match your dress code.

If you are looking to be styling while you walk by all the geeks at work with their "127.0.0.1" T-shirts, or need something to hip up your Lotusphere '06 wardrobe, please visit the Sara Hates Us shop (everything is priced at cost, there is no profit). The Live-Eat-Breathe-Blog pocket logo is on the front, and the blog entry text is on the back.

Disclaimer: the above posting is satire, and is protected as an expression of free speech. If you are from a disgruntled analyst who would like to call my employer and complain, then I suggest you just go and write it down on your own golf shirt.