Leadership By Numbers

Ozzie is at Microsoft. A lot of posts have pointed to this acquisition, and it has given me reason to sift out its significance. This last January, at Lotusphere '05, Ray Ozzie received a standing ovation in recognition of the 15^th anniversary of Lotus Notes. Ray had not been seen at a Lotusphere event since the release of R5, as he had left IBM/Lotus to start Groove Networks. It was a feel-good moment, welcoming home the architect of a collaboration blockbuster. Rumors bubbled that perhaps Ray and IBM would close ranks to work together again. It's almost surreal that only a few months from Lotusphere he is being crowned as one of Microsoft's three Chief Technology Officers, and Groove Networks will be further integrated into Microsoft Office.

It's been interesting to read through the blogs and trade journals to learn what resonates. Ed Brill has the best perspective, but I found two very telling trade releases. Seattle Pi (http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/archives/004486.html) provides the details of Bill Gates and Ray Ozzie's Powerlunch interview with CNBC, at which Ray's announcement was nearly snubbed. John Fontana of NetworkWorld (http://www.nwfusion.com/news/2005/031405-microsoft-groove.html) had perhaps the most telling insight when he reviewed the financials of Groove (of which Microsoft has invested $88 million):

While Groove is privately held, IDC reported the company's revenue as $8 million in 2002 and $12 million in 2003. IDC has not published 2004 numbers, but Groove has had two rounds of layoffs and no new customer announcements in the past 18 months. Groove reports that it has received more than $155 million in funding since its inception.

So, maybe the purchase of Groove Networks is not nearly the amazing event that some see as foretelling a new dawn in collaboration technology. I think I know why. At Lotusphere, Ray set in a discussion panel led by Esther Dyson that was focused on innovation. During the back and forth banter Ray argued that “email is dead.”

My kids leave their computers on and others leave them messages. IM is on all the time. I'm not sure where it's going to go. Email is where people you don't like, leave you messages. I was at a work site and saw workers with two laptops: one was the official, lock-down system, and the other was their personal unit. The employees would transfer the work with USB memory sticks into the official system.

His comments created a lot of laughter as people agreed that IM is tremendously popular among teenagers. The joke in our household, was that for years we were concerned our children would never learn to type, then IM happened and now we're worried that they'll never learn to spell.

This last week, I found myself looking over the shoulder of my daughter, who is a high school freshman. What I saw with my own teenager, was not exactly what Ozzie portrayed, and maybe that's why Groove Networks had begun to stall.

Coming home from school, my daughter launches into IM to check in with her friends, and not just from her school, either. She chats with her grade school teachers, a friend in Chile and a few people from neighboring schools. Keeping her chat sessions open, she checks her blog on LiveJournal.com, which is only open to a select list. She usually adds a post about the day, reads other blogs (LiveJournal and DeadJournal) and then, to my surprise, she opens up email. In email she reads the responses that have been forwarded to her from people who have read her blog and don't want others to read their responses.

IM, blogs, and email have been woven together in practice that almost perfectly simulates what I see in a collaboration suite like Domino. Ray Ozzie is right on target when it comes to identifying the communication patterns of youth, but I think they are more sophisticated than simple IM. Of course, Groove Networks is more than just IM, too, and now it's going to be Microsoft's turn to pull Groove into Office. It is quite an irony that after years of criticizing IBM/Lotus Notes, Microsoft hires its creator as a CTO.