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Why Microsoft Can't Win in Africa

Category Open Source
Last week, the Wall Street Journal wrote about how Microsoft Battles Low-Cost Rival for Africa. It's an interesting analysis, and created some fevered opinions on Slashdot. Looked at from a developing-nation to a first-world economy angle, I can see the appeal for Microsoft to establish a beach-head as early as possible. But, I don't see any big opportunities.

Internet access is very weak, so forget a cheap cloud-based subscription model. With an average of around $500 for a family income, and high poverty--it's just not believable to expect in-roads for Microsoft consumer products. But, I'll give up a better test for assessing Microsoft's chances: look at the cars.

Last time I was in Nairobi, I was fascinated by how few American made cars were used. The only one I ever saw was a single Jeep. The country's road surface is too harsh, and the demand for fuel efficiency is too high. American cars cost too much, and are expensive to maintain. So, I think it's fair to draw an analogy from transportation to information systems and view any great growth from Microsoft in Africa as a long shot.

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