Leadership By Numbers

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Wow. Just, "wow." The blogsphere, analysts and news sources are all over IBM's announcement. "Microsoft-free" is a visionary term distilled from years of Redmond co-opetition while struggling to find a balance with open-source. It's a tough message that doesn't leave any room to negotiate a retraction. There's no going back.

• IBM has announced that an alliance of Novell, RedHat, and Canonical is presenting a Linux desktop standard. "Linux is far more profitable for a PC vendor and the operating system is better equipped to work with lower cost hardware than new Microsoft technology."
• It's being reported that Lenovo might join the Alliance.
• The desktop standard is known as the Open Collaboration Client Solution (OCCS), which is a software suite consisting of Lotus Notes, Lotus Symphony and Lotus Sametime.
• Lotus Symphony will be included in the Canonical repository.
• IBM intends to sell pre-configured Linux appliances for SMBs. "Lotus Foundations Start is the first product of IBM's Blue Business Platform initiative designed to simplify the acquisition and use of information technology (IT) for small and medium businesses (SMBs)" (All quotes are from IBM's press releases.)

Analysis:

• OCCS is well thought out. It is not simply a cobbled amalgam of stray Lotus projects hammered into a Linux package. Read IBM's overview (http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/lotus/library/occs-overview/).
• This is good timing for IBM. Exchange upgrades are so expensive, that there is a trend for companies to move to hosted solutions. Vista has not done well, and it's successor, Windows 7, is not exciting anyone.
• Adding Canonical, with it's no-cost Ubuntu linux is brilliant. Putting Lotus Symphony in the Canonical repository is brilliant.
• "Microsoft-free" is a parade banner. It's going to define the public perception of IBM. It's only as good as long as the crowd is following IBM. But, Microsoft-free is not copyrighted. If Zimbra, for instance, becomes significantly less expensive and better supported, then IBM could be challenged for their "Microsoft-free" title.
• Linux licensing is going to be problem on the server side. RedHat and Novell SuSE only offer a subscription model. Drop their subscription, and there will be no more patches and updates. Microsoft allows updates without their full Software Advantage pricing. So, over three or four years, it turns out that Microsoft Windows Server can be less expensive. Either the commercial Linux vendors need to match Microsoft's pricing, or IBM needs to work with Canonical for the server side of this equation.

[08/08/08 Edit]Application Development Trends quotes Gartner analyst, Michael Silver, as he sizes up the cost justifcation for a Linux desktop:

Windows is not a huge cost when you get it on a new PC, and the annualcost to get a supported version of Linux with seven years ofsecurity-fix support could end up costing you more than you're payingfor Windows. Windows has at least 10 years of security support and it'sfree.

The Gartner picture is pretty accurate for the traditional Linux vendors, but Canonical isn't being factored into these numbers. Ubuntu is Free Opensource (FOSS), so the cost of deployment and maintenance is very, very low. Ubuntu maintains its own repository, and Ubuntu accounts are updated for free. Unlike Novell SuSE or RedHat, Canonical doesn't create its own core Linux OS, but relies on the venerable Debian distribution. The risk that Debian would begin commercializing its releases is unimaginably small. Having a Debian root ensures that Ubuntu will continue to price its client at zero.

I think the industry is at a tipping point, and we are going to see some unexpected migrations into desktop Linux for corporate use.

Technorati Tags: Linux, IBM/Lotus Notes, Microsoft-Free